Today’s news reports tell us that ISIS have now established a bridgehead in Libya and their next target is Europe. Meanwhile the southern border of the U.S. is under the same threat from ISIS if they do not tighten up border control. Don’t believe that ISIS only have designs on Europe. Given Obama’s political colours tightening borders could be a tricky task.

There is a lesson here for all of us, especially politicians, and if there are any around at the moment, statesmen, that you meddle in regime change in the Middle East at your peril. One thing I have observed in my limited reading of the situation is that strongmen in power in the Middle East, even with their associated levels of nastiness, are often far better than the alternatives.

This does not mean I would always advocate keeping the strongman in power while holding your nose. I think there was an arguable case for removIng Sadaam Hussein from power by force. That was the only word he understood, and who knows what was in his heart. He certainly wanted to attack Israel and could have caused no end of mayhem in the region, especially as he had expansionary ambitions as we saw with Kuwait. But this does not nullify the extreme caution we should exercise when advocating regime change in the Middle East.

Look at the whole ‘Arab Spring’ episode, when the West was duly trumpeting the dawn of democracy in the region. One regime after another fell and mayhem has followed in many places.

Egypt was ruled by Mubarak who was overthrown to be replaced by Morsi, who proved to be a front for a militantly Islamic regime that steamed immediately into its totalitarian instincts. And this regime change was all supported by the West. When Morsi was opposed by the Egyptian people out on the streets en masse (all credit to them) there was tut tutting from the West about trying to get rid of a legitimate government. But again the liberal West has little grasp of the nuances of Egyptian politics, Islamist threats and the fear of the Moslem Brotherhood. Egypt has faced enormous upheaval since Mubarak went, something supported by the U.S. and European governments, yet would it not have been better to have tried to keep Mubarak where he was? A strong leader is what Middle Eastern nations need to keep the extreme Islamists in their place. Such leaders understand exactly what medicine is needed to keep these people in line, and that means utter ruthlessness, something we in the West left behind a long time ago.

It’s the same in Syria. The West bleats about the terrible tyrant Assad and the way he goes on. Yes, we would have issues with such a man, but under Assad Christians had more freedom than virtually anywhere else in the Middle East apart from perhaps Israel. Now that Syria is in chaos and various Islamic extremists try to gain control, Christians are the ones caught in the ensuing bloodbath. In the Middle East Christians are in danger of being extinguished as militant Islam shows its true colours, adhering to their mantra, ‘First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people’ (Jews and Christians). Thank God David Cameron’s idea of going into Syria was defeated in the Commons vote. We could have been complicit in aiding some of the nastiest radicals In the region gaining power, perhaps ISIS themselves.

And then there is Libya of course. Granted, Colonel Gaddafi was a deeply unpleasant dictatorial leaders, but perhaps he was a bulwark against something far nastier. Perhaps we should have taken the post Gaddafi vacuum far more seriously. We went in with our RAF jets to help get rid of him, and now Libya is in turmoil and ISIS are at the gates of the European continent. What did Gaddafi himself say? When he was still alive in his Bedouin tent he said, ‘If, instead of a stable government that guarantees security, these militias linked to Bin Laden take control, the Africans will move en masse towards Europe,’ adding that ‘the Mediterranean will become a sea of chaos.’

So it’s the same story in Egypt, Syria and Libya. Former tyrants have been ousted, only to open the way to something far worse. I remember a friend of mine telling me how years ago he had prophesied that if the Shah of Persia was ousted something far worse would replace him. How right he was as the Ayatollah Khomeini filled the vacuum with a hard line Islamic state imposed upon the people of Iran. When will we ever learn. Unfortunately the way it works in some of these countries is that you need someone very, very strong to keep the crazies in order. It has even been said of a country like Russia that they are an aggressive people and need a strong leader to keep them in order.

We now have to face the possibility that because of the policies of our governments aiding and abetting the downfall of admittedly unpleasant dictatorships we have opened the way for ISIS to now become a mortal threat to Europe itself, to old settled liberal societies that at present show little stomach for a fight.